recherch_xii.mws
Recherches sur
l'intégration des équations différentielles aux
différences finies, et sur leur usage dans la théorie des
hasards.
P.S. Laplace
PROBLEM
XII.
I
imagine a solid composed
of a number n
of faces perfectly equal, and which I
designate by
the numbers
;
I wish
to have the probability that, by
a number x
of casts, I will bring about these
n faces in
sequence in
the order
.
Let
be the probability.
Laplace obtains the recurrence relation
subject to the initial conditions
that
for
and
.
>
restart:
>
eqn12:=y(x)=y(x-1)-y(x-n)/n^n+1/n^n;
Example
1.
Laplace solves this in the case of
only. We must have
and
.
>
eqn12_2:=subs(n=2,eqn12);
>
g2:=rsolve({eqn12_2,y(1)=0,y(2)=1/4},y(x),'makeproc'):
>
g2(x);
When
do we have an even
wager that the sequence 12 will appear? When
.
>
g2(3);
Example
2.
This problem is more difficult with
. The initial
conditions are that
,
, and
. It is
for reason of difficulty, I suspect,
that Laplace stopped with
.
>
eqn12_3:=subs(n=3,eqn12);
>
g3:=rsolve({eqn12_3,y(1)=0,y(2)=0,y(3)=1/27},y(x),'makeproc'):
>
factor(normal(g3(x)));
This
solution can be simplified
and the use of limits be avoided. Suppose
is a root of
. Then
divides
and
the factorization of this polynomial
is
Thus
the other two roots
can be expressed in terms of the first as
and
Moreover, we may rewrite
as
.
We
may then substitute this
new expression for
in the
solution given above.
The
problem is completed
if we then sum over the three roots of
,
substituting them successively for
. Since the polynomial
is cubic, we can
find the roots exactly. These roots are
>
solve(z^3-27*z+27);
This
prospect is not fun.
An
alternative is to
compute the values recursively . We
do this
in general with the procedure
.
>
G:=proc(n,x::nonnegint) options remember;
> if x<n
then 0 elif x=n then 1/n^n else evalf(G(n,x-1)-G(n,x-3)/n^n+1/n^n); fi;
end:
For
example
, let's consider a die with 6 sides. In how many
tosses
do we have an even wager that the faces will appear in consecutive
order?
>
evalf(G(6,32342));
>
evalf(G(6,32343));
>
>