Simon Denis Poisson
b. 21 June 1781
d. 25 April 1840
Poisson's major work in regard to probability and statistics
is his Recherches
sur la
probabilité
des jugements en matière criminelle et en matière civile.
Paris, 1837. It incorporates much material published previously.
Summaries of the papers related to probability and statistics are
given
by
O. B. Sheynin in the paper "Poisson's Work in Probability," Archive
for
the History of the Exact Sciences. We follow his bibliography.
- "Observations relatives au nombre de naissances des deux sexes."
Annuaire le bureau des longitudes pour 1825 (1824), 98-99.
- "Sur la
probabilité des résultats moyens des observations."
Connaiss. des Temps, 1827, pp. 273-302. Poisson gives a
Central Limit Theorem and studies the theory of errors.
- "Sur l'avantage
du banquier au jeu de Trente-et-quarante."
Paris Soc.
Philom. Bull., 1820, pp. 22-25; Gergonne, Ann. Math. XVI,
1825-26, pp. 173-208; Annal de Chimie, XIII, 1820, pp. 173-183.
In the game of 30 and 40, players draw cards in order to achieve a sum
based on their face value. Poisson considers the problem of obtaining
the same sum in two consecutive drawings. We link here to a draft
translation by Gevaert and Ethier.
- "Rapport sur les tontines," 1821
(1826). In Oeuvres de Fourier, t. 2. Paris, 1890, 617-633.
Prepared by Poisson, Lacroix, Fourier - rapporteur.
- "Discours prononcé aux obsèques de ... Laplace." Connaiss.
des Temps, 1830 (1827), 19-22.
- "Suite du mémoire sur la
probabilité du résultat moyen des observations."
[1829] Connaiss. des Temps, 1832, pp. 3-22; Schweigger, Journ.
LXIV (=Jahrb. IV), 1832, pp. 38-42. A continuation of [2], this
paper gives another version of the Central Limit Theorem and futher
study on the theory of errors. One may examine the
first table of the normal distribution given by Chrétien Kramp
in his Analyse
des Refractions published in 1799. See pages 195 - 202.
- "Mémoire
sur la proportion des naissances des filles et des garçons."
Paris, Mém. Acad. Sci. IX, 1830, pp. 239-308; Annal.
de Chimie, XL, 1829, pp. 39-45; Quart. Journ. Sci. I, 1829,
pp. 422-423. This paper examines the ratio of male to female births in
various departments of France.
- "Formules des probabilités, rélatives au
résultat moyen des observations, qui peuvent être utiles
dans l'artillerie." Mémorial de l'artillerie, No. 3,
1830, 81-90. This paper introduces the idea of assessing the accuracy
of rifles through the examination of the results of target practice.
Poisson references item 6 above.
- "Note sur la probabilité du résultat moyen des observations," Bulletin des sciences mathématiques, physiques et chimiques 13, 1830, pp. 266-277.
- "Recherches sur
la
probabilité des jugements, principalement en matière
criminelle." Paris, Comptes Rendus, I., 1835, pp.
473-494; L'Institut, III, 1835, pp. 416-419. Here Poisson first
enunciates his Law of Large Numbers and considers applications of
probability to jurisprudence.
- "Note sur la
loi des
grands nombres." Paris, Comptes Rendus, II., 1836,
pp. 377-382. The meaning of the Law of Large Numbers is repeated.
- "Note sur le
calcul
des probabilités." Paris, Comptes Rendus, II.,
1836, pp. 395-400. Poisson remarks on the stability of ratios.
- "Formules
relatives
aux probabilités qui dépendent de très grands
nombres." Paris, Comptes Rendus, II, 1836, pp.
603-613. Another version of the Central Limit Theorem.
- Recherches
sur la
probabilité
des jugements en matière criminelle et en matière civile.
Paris, 1837.
- "Solution d'un
problème de probabilité." Liouville, Journ.
Math. II, 1837, pp. 373-387. Poisson takes up Waldegrave's
problem. For this, see Montmort.
- "Mémoire sur la probabilité du tir a la cible." Mémorial
de l'artillerie, No. 4,
1837, 59-94. A continuation of item 8 above in which the assessment of
rifles is examined in greater detail. It references both items 2
and 6 above.
- "Note sur la
proportion des condamnations pronouncées par les jurys."
Paris, Comptes Rendus, V, 1837, pp. 355-357, 459-468. Poisson
again remarks on the stability of ratios.
Several sections in the Recherches
sur la
probabilité
des jugements en matière criminelle et en matière civile
are of
particular interest. These are:
See also Bienaymé for
his assertion that the Law of Law Numbers does not exist in his 1855
paper: "Sur
un principe que M.
Poisson avait cru découvir et qu'il avait appelé Loi des
grands nombres."